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RACS ASC 2024

Developing a Risk Prediction Tool for Emergency Laparotomy

Verbal Presentation

Verbal Presentation

5:00 pm

08 May 2024

Bealey 3

RESEARCH PAPERS

Disciplines

General Surgery

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Presentation Description

Institution: University of Auckland - Auckland, Aotearoa New Zealand

Purpose Emergency Laparotomy (EL) carries high mortality, necessitating accurate and timely risk prediction for patient care and quality improvement. Current risk prediction tools are developed based on variables collected for audit encompassing physiological and comorbidity markers. The Risk Estimation for Acute Laparotomy (REAL) study aims to develop a preoperative prediction model based on the current understanding of EL risk factors. Method The REAL study is a multicenter prospective cohort study on 5 major NZ hospitals. 234 variables were prospectively collected for each patient in the following categories: acute physiology, comorbidities, frailty, disability, quality of life, nutrition, and socioeconomic factors. The model was developed by sequential logistic regression. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to assess discrimination, and McFadden's R-square (MFR) was used for calibration. Results 1167 patients were recruited, with an inpatient mortality of 6.6%. The selected variables were the clinical frailty scale, resuscitation status, creatinine, heart failure, obstructive pulmonary disease, liver failure, confusion, diastolic bp, pulse rate and age. For simplicity, only 2 variables were continuous, and the remainder were categorical. The model achieved an AUROC of 0.90, excellent discrimination, and an MFR of 0.32, excellent calibration. Conclusion The REAL study presents a novel risk prediction tool with excellent discrimination and calibration. This model is unique as it is not constrained by variables collected for other purposes. Focusing on a parsimonious selection of variables offers a practical, easily applicable tool for preoperative risk assessment in EL patients.

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Authors

Authors

Dr Ahmed Barazanchi - , Dr Brittany Park - , Dr Sameer Bhat - , Dr Ashish Taneja - , Associate Professor Andrew Maccormick - , Professor Andrew G Hill -